"If it went soft she wouldn't run"—overnight rain casts doubt on Lockinge's favourite Inspiral's participation

Rain during the night at Newbury has raised questions over Inspiral's involvement in the Group 1 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes on Saturday.

The six-time Group 1 winner, owned and bred by Cheveley Park Stud and trained by John and Thady Gosden, has made her seasonal debut at Royal Ascot the last two seasons. However, this year, connections have been made back from the Lockinge as a starting point.

Nevertheless, Inspiral lost the most significant race of her career on soft ground in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last season. Although the course at Newbury was rated as just good to soft on Tuesday morning after 10mm of rain overnight, more rain before Saturday would probably rule her out. 

"She had a nice, steady programme throughout the winter and spring and looks great, but we're obviously concerned about the ground for Saturday," said Chris Richardson, managing director of Cheveley Park Stud. “We've got to be realistic. She showed in Sussex that she plainly doesn't go on ground that's not to her liking and this is going to be a watching brief. If they avoid the rain for the rest of the week we're obviously going to be tempted but if they were going to get more rain on Thursday, or whatever, I'd be concerned."  

The next major band of rain for the area is expected to pass north of Newbury, according to George Hill, clerk of the course at Newbury. However, showers could "pop up" on Friday and Saturday, perhaps bringing with them 2-3 mm of rain per day if they do.

"We have the risk of showers on Friday and Saturday, but it is not organised rain in the way it was on Monday and Tuesday morning," Hill said. "It could stay dry for the rest of the week, although the percentage call is unlikely.  If you asked me what I think the ground will be, I'd say it will be a mix of good and good to soft with it being more good if the showers don't pop up. The track looks very well and hopefully, we get lucky with the showers."

Even though Inspiral would not fare well in any additional rain, Big Rock, her major competitor in the main market, and third favourite Charyn, who have both triumphed in Group races on soft footing, shouldn't be alarmed. Inspiral has dipped to 2-1, the same price as Big Rock, and Charyn has plummeted. She is now 4-1 (down from 5).

Richardson stated that it was early to make a definitive decision because of the unpredictable weather forecast for the rest of the week, but it was evident that Inspiral would wait for Royal Ascot if the ground continued to deteriorate.